Orange County’s unemployment rate is expected to reach 5% or higher toward the end of next year and the beginning of 2025 as the local economy feels the effects of a nationwide recession, according to California State University, Fullerton economists.
The economists, led by Anil Puri and Mira Farka, released their annual economic forecast today.
Among other points forecast in the 2024 report:
- A “garden-variety recession” will hit the U.S. in the second half of 2024.
- The Orange County unemployment rate is expected to average 3.5% in 2023, 4.5% in 2024, and 4.2% in 2025.
- The top sectors driving Orange County’s employment growth this year are leisure and hospitality, with a gain of 10,642 jobs; health care and social assistance with 6,658; and professional and business services with 4,038.
- “Assuming the Fed follows through on its stated policy of higher-for-longer and our view of a downshift in economic activity, we expect median home prices in Southern California to fall by approximately 10% over the next two years,” the CSUF forecast says.
